Dallas Native Voice | 2019 Real Estate Predictions

Mary Beth:         Hi. This is Mary Beth Harrison with Dallas Native Voice. And I’m so excited to be sitting with Chris Kelly again. Thanks for taking the time to do this.

Chris:                     Thanks for having me back.

Mary Beth:         I really want to get an idea of where you think the market’s going. Um. Kind of an economic forecast for 2019. And so, I’m glad you brought your crystal ball, because, you know, it, it’s, we all need one. (laugh) Always love that [crosstalk 00:00:24]-

Chris:                     If I had hair, it’d be standing up as I, you know, was rubbing it. So.

Mary Beth:         Exactly. Always love the, “Where do you think it’s going?” And I’m like, “Here, let me, let’s see.” I don’t know. Today it’s gonna go here.

Chris:                     Right.

Mary Beth:         But I’m curious what you, your, been all over and you’ve talked to everyone that’s in the know. So, where do you think it’s going?

Chris:                     So, I always like to look at, uh, a lot of different prognosticators, and then see if there’s a theme throughout it.

Mary Beth:         Mm-hmm (affirmative).

Chris:                     And so, looking at Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and NAR. Um. All of them have come out with about modest growth in, let’s say, home sale units across the country. All of them have in excess of six million units for, for, for 2019. Which is anywhere from a two to four percent rise, uh, from 2018.

Mary Beth:         Mm-hmm (affirmative).

Chris:                     The highest is actually the Mortgage Bankers Association. They’re predicting more of about a, a 20% growth.

Mary Beth:         Wow. That, that’s a … [crosstalk 00:01:08]-

Chris:                     Seems high. And when you look at it, I, I don’t, I think that’s probably a little bit on the, on the, on the high side.

Mary Beth:         Mm-hmm (affirmative).

Chris:                     I think the other three average them out is about right. I think we’ll see a little bit of growth in units in 2019. And then looking at home sale appreciation, they’re predicting about 4.6% appreciation in sales prices.

Mary Beth:         Right.

Chris:                     Which is still about a percent higher than what our average would be for, for an normal year. And so what that strikes to me is that, there’s still going to be somewhat of an inventory issue.

Mary Beth:         Mm-hmm (affirmative).

Chris:                     But I do think in markets, especially like here in Dallas/Fort Worth, we’re probably getting closer to a balanced market again. Which is not a bad thing.

Mary Beth:         I would agree. No. It’s not a bad thing. It’s just, it’s neither a buyer, nor a seller. It’s just, you walk in, and you see a value, and you wanna buy it.

Chris:                     Right.

Mary Beth:         It’s just … Yeah. I think the sellers need to get a little bit of education here.

Chris:                     Correct.

Mary Beth:         Because they got a little bit greedy. And, wanted more and more, and thought their house was better than the one before it. Um. Yeah. I’m finding that where we were pricing the last sale, and pricing it above. Now we’re taking that last sale and pricing it either equal to or maybe a little lower.

Chris:                     Yes.

Mary Beth:         Depending on the area, and the inventory, and that type of thing. So, Dallas is, is crying for all of the relocation. So, let’s talk about that a second, because, again, I don’t wanna seem like I’m burying my head in the sand of Dallas being better than anybody else. But, I do see a sub theme so economically solid here. So …

Chris:                     Yes. So, we are very fortunate. There are a lot of markets across the country where there is flight. You know. People are leaving in more gro, you know, numbers that people are coming in.

Mary Beth:         Right.

Chris:                     We are in an area of more Texas where we have more people coming in than leaving.

Mary Beth:         Yes.

Chris:                     Um. And. So that obviously always is going to help stabilize a marketplace. When we have that many new people coming in for, because of business reasons, because of personal decisions, whatever it might be. You know. Last year we saw about 108 thousand jobs added in north Texas alone.

Mary Beth:         Yeah. That’s a lot.

Chris:                     Um. With that many new jobs coming in, um, that goes very well for the housing industry-

Mary Beth:         Yes.

Chris:                     Because all those people need to live somewhere.

Mary Beth:         Yeah. Absolutely. And, and I kind of ge, see that too. Or, or watch that. I’ve watched the market pickup. The last quarter was certainly weak. Without a doubt. That fourth quarter. But, uh, seeing it go forward to 2019 just, it’s already, we’re seeing the trajectory going up.

Chris:                     Correct.

Mary Beth:         Um. I, in looking at the Dallas market year over year, for the last, gosh, I don’t know, probably 15 some odd years, our appreciation is that perfect economic graph. We, we don’t, we don’t do this, we don’t do this.

Chris:                     Right.

Mary Beth:         We just kind of have that what? Six to eight percent appreciation year over, over year, over year.

Chris:                     Right. Right.

Mary Beth:         So, when I hear a six percent appreciation, that’s not a bad day.

Chris:                     Correct.

Mary Beth:         Yeah.

Chris:                     And, and that is really one of the nice things about being in this area of the country is that, when we look to our sister companies on the coast-

Mary Beth:         Mm-hmm (affirmative). Yes.

Chris:                     That’s exactly where you see that volatility.

Mary Beth:         Yes.

Chris:                     Great year, terrible year.

Mary Beth:         Yes.

Chris:                     Our number at one point, uh, in, in about a two year swing, Miami went from having 22 years worth of condo inventory to then less than six months.

Mary Beth:         Yeah.

Chris:                     You know. In a two year swing. We don’t get that. Which is a great thing.

Mary Beth:         Yeah it is.

Chris:                     Because again, that, um, calms the nerves of our buyers and sellers.

Mary Beth:         Yes.

Chris:                     It calms the nerves of us professionals that are in the business.

Mary Beth:         Yes.

Chris:                     And it helps for that steady growth year over year.

Mary Beth:         Absolutely. Yeah. When we don’t have that meteoric high, we don’t get that catastrophic fall.

Chris:                     That’s right.

Mary Beth:         So we don’t have to make up that time. We just-

Chris:                     That’s exactly right.

Mary Beth:         If anything, we might flat line.

Chris:                     Correct.

Mary Beth:         But we don’t ever just go berserk here. I don’t know. Some-

Chris:                     It’s okay that we don’t have mountains in Texas.

Mary Beth:         Exactly. Don’t ask, don’t ask me for beach front or mountain view.

Chris:                     That’s right. Exactly right.

Mary Beth:         And we’ll get along just fine.

Chris:                     Absolutely.

Mary Beth:         That’s exactly-

Chris:                     Yeah.

Mary Beth:         Well, thank you for your insight. I, I’ve heard the same thing for a, everyone I’ve talked to. I, I’ve heard a very similar, uh, approach to it. So, I appreciate that.

Chris:                     Thanks for having me back. I’ll put the crystal ball away now.

Mary Beth:         Yeah. Thank you.

Chris:                     And we’ll, we’ll do it again.

Mary Beth:         ‘Cause we’ll get this in six months and see where we are.

Chris:                     All right. Yep. Sounds good.

Mary Beth:         Thanks so much.

Chris:                     Thank you.

Mary Beth:         Well, thanks for listening. And where or you are, we’re in all social media. You can see us at Dallasnative.com. And thanks for listening.


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